Around the 4th of July, here in the States, there is a tendency for official weather forecasts to show a probability of precipitation that is lower than it should be. It rains more than the forecasters guess. The same thing inverted happens around December 25th (the Federally-Recognized Holiday That Shall Not Be Named): the forecasts tend to give too high a probability of precipitation. It snows less than the forecasters guess. This phenomena is well recognized in meteorology where it has long gone by the name of wishcasting: it is also found in many other areas of life, which I’ll...
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